CHAPTER 3: THREATS
their return comprises not just attack planning but radicalisation of associates,
facilitation and fundraising, all of which further exacerbate the threat. The number of
UK-linked individuals who are involved in or been exposed to terrorist training and
fighting is higher than it has been at any point since the 9/11 attacks in 2001. MI5
regard this aspect of the threat as unprecedented. Some travellers were previously
unknown to MI5.11
3.16.
The volume and accessibility of extremist propaganda has increased. UK-based
extremists are able to talk directly to ISIL fighters and their wives in web forums and
on social media. The key risk is that this propaganda is able to inspire individuals to
undertake attacks without ever travelling to Syria or Iraq. Through these media
outputs, ISIL have driven the increase in unsophisticated attack methodology seen in
recent months in Australia, France and Canada
3.17.
MI5 have successfully disrupted two attack plots by lone actors in the past nine
months, both in the late stages of preparation. But MI5 have explained that identifying
such individuals is increasingly challenging, exacerbated by the current limitations in
their technical capabilities, which I discuss later.
3.18.
Finally, Northern Ireland’s progress towards a post-conflict society is unfortunately far
from complete. A real terrorist threat persists in parts of Northern Ireland, as the
following figures demonstrate:
(a)
In the year to February 2015 there were three security-related deaths, 71
shooting incidents and 44 bombing incidents, together with 49 casualties from
paramilitary-style assaults.
(b)
Over the same 12-month period, 230 persons were arrested in Northern Ireland
under the Terrorism Acts, and 37 were charged. 12
(c)
Of the 20 dissident republican attacks during 2014, most were unsuccessful.
But the Director General of MI5 has said that “for every one of those attacks we
and our colleagues in the police have stopped three or four others coming to
fruition.”13 My own regular visits to Northern Ireland, where I am briefed in detail
by police and security services, give me no cause to doubt that assessment.
The threat level to Northern Ireland from Northern Ireland-related terrorism remains at
“severe”.
Espionage
3.19.
11
12
13
Espionage did not go away at the end of the Cold War. Hostile states still seek to
gather sensitive intelligence on a wide range of subjects – defence, energy, financial,
technological, industrial and commercial – often to advance their own state
programmes. When they succeed, they disadvantage the UK economically, militarily
Evidence from MI5, April 2015.
PSNI, Security Situation Statistics, 2015.
Andrew Parker, address of 8 January 2015 to RUSI, available on www.mi5.gov.uk, paras 28-29.
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