3.
THREATS
Introduction
3.1.
I am specifically directed by DRIPA 2014 s7 to consider “current and future threats to
the United Kingdom”, of the sort which the capabilities under review could be useful
in addressing. The UK faces a diverse range of security threats, from a wide array of
perpetrators, including terrorism, organised crime, espionage from hostile states and
cyber threats. All of these contribute to a multi-faceted national security threat, to
which the threat from crime adds a further dimension.
3.2.
The calibration of response to threat is far from an exact science, not least because
the perceived severity of a threat depends on the fear that it evokes as well as on its
potential for harm. Some harm may be neither tangible nor immediate: for example,
long-term damage to the UK’s economic wellbeing, or a reduction in the UK’s ability
to act globally and achieve its international objectives. Such impacts are harder to
observe and to quantify than violent attacks. They may never come into the public
eye or receive widespread publicity. But without some notion of all these threats, it is
hard to pronounce on the extent to which intrusive powers are needed.
3.3.
I received a great deal of evidence from the Government, law enforcement and the
security and intelligence agencies on the threats faced today and likely to be faced in
the future. For the purposes of this short summary, I have grouped them under two
headings: national security threats and crime and public safety. But before turning to
the detail, I make two preliminary points.
The threat in perspective
3.4.
3.5.
No one doubts the gravity of the threats that are faced by the UK and its inhabitants,
or the capacity of those threats both to take life and to diminish its quality.1 But it is
generally a mistake (though a surprisingly common one) to describe threat levels as
“unprecedented”. Two points need to be kept in mind:
(a)
Events capable of taking life on a massive scale are a feature of every age and
every stage of development.2
(b)
Whilst some of the threats faced at any given time will be realised, others will
not.
The last point was well made by Jonathan Evans (now Lord Evans of Weardale) in a
public speech as Director of MI5:
“Those of us who are paid to think about the future from a security perspective
tend to conclude that future threats are getting more complex, unpredictable
and alarming. After a long career in [MI5], I have concluded that this is rarely
1
2
I am grateful to Ray McClure, uncle to Fusilier Lee Rigby, for his thoughtful submission to the Review.
The Black Death probably killed at least a third of the population of Europe in the years after 1346. As
to violence, Steven Pinker of Harvard University has warned against “historical myopia”, and claimed
that “nostalgia for a peaceable past is the biggest delusion of all”: The Better Angels of our Nature
(2011), pp. 233, 838.
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